A new NZ political poll has put National and Labour at their lowest combined support in 30 years, while the Opportunity Party edges closer to the 5 percent threshold, underlining fresh volatility in New Zealand election polling.

Major parties lose ground in 1News poll results

The 1News poll results show the major parties’ combined vote share falling to a three-decade low, a signal that the traditional two-party dominance is weakening. The figures reflect a growing pool of voters shifting away from National and Labour, raising questions about how stable the big-party base now is.

This NZ two-party decline matters because it reshapes the centre of political gravity. With support fragmented, coalition arithmetic becomes more complex and smaller parties gain leverage over policy and power sharing.

Opportunity Party approaches the 5 percent threshold

The poll also finds the Opportunity Party nearing the 5 percent threshold NZ parties need to enter Parliament without an electorate seat. That puts a new player within striking distance, a development that could alter the balance of post‑election negotiations if the trend holds.

In New Zealand election polling, shifts around the threshold can have outsized consequences, determining whether votes translate into seats. The latest numbers highlight a contest not just for party rankings, but for credibility and influence in the next Parliament.

Together, the major parties’ support drop and the Opportunity Party’s rise point to a more fluid and contested political landscape, where voter trust and strategic coalition building are likely to shape the next phase of governance.